A coalition comprising 25 civil society organizations has issued a call to security agencies, urging them to caution political parties against actions that could potentially lead to serious crises in the lead-up to the off-season gubernatorial elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states.

In a communique released after a three-day election preview focusing on these three states, the civil society organizations specifically highlighted the activities of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in Kogi State as an example of what security agencies should discourage.

They expressed concern over the SDP’s campaign tactics in Kogi State, which included making unfounded allegations and engaging in ethnic profiling. These actions, they emphasized, had the potential to jeopardize the peace and security of the electorate, Independent National Electoral Commission officials, election observers, and other candidates in the state.

The coalition arrived at these conclusions after closely monitoring the campaign strategies of various political parties participating in the November 11 gubernatorial elections in Kogi, Bayelsa, and Imo States. They stressed the importance of addressing these activities promptly to prevent possible security breaches and statements that might incite ethnic discord and electoral violence during the off-season polls.

The communique, jointly presented to the media in Abuja on Thursday, was signed by Dr. Jaiyeola Isiaka, the Director of Research and Data Analysis for the coalition.

The coalition also provided insights into the security situation in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi States during the campaign period, with particular concern for Imo State due to escalating security challenges. They called on security agencies to intensify efforts in Imo State to address the growing security concerns.

The coalition projected voter turnout percentages for the three states: 35-40% in Bayelsa, 20-25% in Imo, and approximately 50% in Kogi.

Regarding the election outcomes, the coalition presented nonpartisan projections based on delegate reports and independent research:

Bayelsa State:

  • APC: 30% of the total votes
  • PDP: 40% of the total votes
  • Others: 30%

Imo State:

  • APC: 35% of the total votes
  • PDP: 25% of the total votes
  • LP: 30% of the total votes

Kogi State:

  • Accord: 15% of estimated votes
  • APC: 45% of the total estimated votes
  • PDP: 10% of the total estimated votes
  • SDP: 15% of the total estimated votes
  • Others: 15% of the total estimated votes