By G9ija

In his last interview with NEWS REPORTER, Atiku sounded like someone who had everything figured out and hence confident of victory.

But I’ve been cracking my head to see where Atiku is really expecting his votes aside his native Northeast and some states in Northwest, where else is Atiku sure of votes.

To buttress this point, I will tell you what happened when I boarded a Uber in Lagos. It happened that the driver is from the Igbo speaking area of Delta State. We got talking and talks got to politics and he revealed that he’s card-carrying member of the PDP. But guess what, this man told me clearly that he’s support Peter Obi for the presidency.

We were still analyzing his reasons when he got a call from a certain ‘Segun’ who he addressed as “my corrupt officer”. After they exchanged banters, my Uber driver now cunningly told his caller that in the forthcoming election their support is for Tinubu since they are all Lagos boys. But surprisingly, Segun interjected and said “it’s Obi o”. In the end they concluded that for governorship, Senator, Rep, etc, they are voting PDP, but they are voting Obi for Presidency.

When he was done with the call, I now asked him which of the Southwest States Segun is from and guess what my driver told me, Segun is from Kogi State. He’s Okun. The part of Kogi that speak Yoruba. I got to find out that they both belong to PDP but they are both not voting Atiku for the presidency. I asked my driver if he relates with people at home in Delta to know their opinion too and he told me categorically that everybody in Delta is Obidient and dismissed Okowa’s influence.

I’m not telling you this for you to believe; I can only tell you the truth, but not force you to believe it.

Now the question is, how many PDP card-carrying members are like my driver and Segun? How many southerners and MiddleBelters are like them?

So far in the electioneering process, it has been become increasingly obvious that Southeast and Southsouth, a traditional PDP region, is gone with Peter Obi of Labour Party. Again, due to Christian sentiment and for want of competent candidate who would be different from the norm, most North Central states of Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa and FCT seem to be leaning towards Obi. Taraba in Northeast is also looking Obidient. Then you add Southern Kaduna, Southern Bauchi, Southern Gombe, etc. let’s not forget that Christian sentiments might also guarantee Peter Obi about 30% of Southwest votes.

Tinubu on the other hand is looking to do well in Southwest irrespective of the negative sentiments that his Muslim-Muslim ticket has generated amongst Christian voters in his native southwest region. Similarly, a state like Kwara, who are more Yoruba than northern, might also swing to Tinubu. Again being the candidate of the party in power, it is expected that president Buhari and the northern APC governors will work to deliver some votes of the core northern states for Tinubu. Again, with his running mate coming from Northeast, Tinubu is expected to take Borno and Yobe in the region.

Kwankwaso is looking strong in Kano. Some people say Jigawa but I don’t know about that and can’t say it.

Then, there is Atiku. As of today, Atiku can only boast of votes from Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba in his native Northeast. Borno and Yobe are most probably gone with Shettima of APC. Then in the northwest, with Kano gone with Kwankwaso, Atiku seems to be looking strong in other states of the Northwest of Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kebbi and Zamfara. But that’s where it ends. Where else is Atiku sure of votes in Nigeria. We may concede he would garner some votes in Delta because of Okowa but I can place a bet that Atiku will not win Delta. Just like his percentage of votes in the entire southern region will be too insignificant to be significant.

Therefore, I throw this poser to Atiku supporters and those who like to claim that the upcoming election is between Atiku and Tinubu to tell me where Atiku is expecting his votes.